宏观分析
美国科技成长 QQQ
1. 价值因素
指标
结论
依据
1
历史收益率
很好
近3年、近5年、近10年复合年化收益率分别约32.1%、14.4%、18.6%
2
历史收益率稳定性
较好
近10年正收益年份占比约80.0%，近10年最差年度收益率约-33.1%
3
实际利率
较差
当前实际利率约2.7%，中性水平约1.5%，高于中性约1.2个百分点
4
标普500本年预期EPS增速
很好
当前EPS增速约32.8%，中性水平约8.0%，高于中性约24.8个百分点
2. 价格因素
指标
结论
依据
1
今年收益率
正常
今年以来折算年化收益率约21.7%，近5年完整年度平均收益率约18.5%，相差约3.2个百分点
2
10年期美债收益率
偏高
当前10年期美债约5.1%，中性水平约4.0%，高于中性约1.1个百分点
3
核心CPI同比
正常
当前核心CPI同比约2.6%，中性水平约2.5%，高于中性约0.1个百分点
4
金融条件指数
正常
当前金融条件指数约-0.50，中性水平约0.00，低于中性约0.50点
5
资金拥挤度
很高
当前资金拥挤度约1.5万亿美元，中性水平约1.0万亿美元，高于中性约0.5万亿美元
3. 综合结论
指标
结论
依据
1
价值水平
较好
价值因素有效指标4项，正向3项，中性0项，负向1项
2
价格水平
偏高
价格因素有效指标5项，正向0项，中性3项，负向2项
1. 收益率分析
年度收益率 = 当年期末价格 / 上年期末价格 - 1，衡量单个年度的价格回报。
复合年化收益率 = 区间总收益按持有年限折算后的年化收益率，衡量多年区间的平均回报。
今年表现
收益率
16.9%
折算年化收益率
21.5%
平均复合年化收益率
近3年
32.1%
近5年
14.4%
近10年
18.6%
最新折算年化收益率偏离均值
较近3年平均
-33.1%
较近5年平均
49.4%
较近10年平均
15.8%
1. 价格走势分析
展示最近 1 个月价格变化，用于观察短期价格趋势和波动。
最新报价
最新价格
718.22
日涨跌额
-0.14
日涨跌幅
0.0%
近1月表现
区间涨跌幅
-3.1%
区间最高
759.66
区间最低
709.80
价格位置
区间振幅
6.7%
区间均价
740.32
当前位置
16.9%
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来源：
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